A heavyweight showdown between top-seeded Duke and second-seeded Alabama is set for the East Region Elite Eight in Newark, NJ, on Saturday at 8:49 PM, though oddsmakers believe the Blue Devils should win handily.
These are arguably the two best offenses in the nation, featuring two of the best individual players, and both teams are looking to finish the job in March Madness after coming tantalizingly close to winning it all last year.
The Crimson Tide made the Final Four in 2024 before losing to eventual national champion UConn, while Duke lost in this round to in-state rival NC State.
This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, though betting the OVER might not be the move. Let’s get into the betting implications and pick for the game.
Duke vs Alabama Odds, Spread and TotalSpreadAlabama +6.5 (-106)Duke -6.5 (-114)Moneyline Alabama +225Duke -280
Total: 174.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Duke vs Alabama How to WatchDate: Saturday, March 29thGame Time: 8:49 PM ESTVenue: Prudential CenterHow to Watch (TV): TBSDuke Record: 34-3Alabama Record: 27-8Duke vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch Duke
Cooper Flagg: Flagg put on a clinic in the Blue Devils’ win over Arizona in the Sweet 16, scoring 30 points on 9-of-19 shooting, including 3-for-5 from 3-point range. He’s the likely No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and he showed why against Arizona, pitching in seven assists and six rebounds and making a last-second shot before halftime to give Duke momentum. While Duke has talent across the court, its playmaking ability is the key to them getting to the Final Four.
Alabama
Mark Sears: Sears exploded in the Sweet 16, making 10-of-16 3-pointers and scoring 34 total points. This was his first true breakout game in March Madness this year after leading the Crimson Tide through their amazing run last year when he averaged 24.2 points per game. It couldn’t have come at a better time. For Alabama to pull the upset, he’ll need to keep shooting it lights out from deep after a slow start (1-9) in his first two games.
Duke vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
After Duke and Alabama put up 100 points each in the Sweet 16, the easy pick is to back the OVER. However, the total being set at 174.5 seems like a trap so I’m going to focus on the spread.
Alabama has the highest-scoring offense in the nation and plays at the fastest pace in college basketball. That worked against a BYU team that also wanted to push the pace in the Sweet 16. It now faces a more methodical Duke opponent that won’t let the Crimson Tide dictate the pace for the entire game.
Duke is ranked fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation while Alabama is 27th. The Blue Devils also have the most efficient offense in the nation, while Alabama is fourth. That means in a close game where possessions are important, Duke has the more efficient offense and defense.
The path to Alabama winning this game is heavily reliant on winning the 3-point battle. Duke is an effective team defending the 3-point shot; however, it ranks 36th in the nation by allowing 31.0% to opponents from deep.
In a game where making free throws is so important and could be a deciding factor for the spread at the end of the game, Duke ranks 16th in the nation, making 78.8% of its free throws. Alabama is 196th at 71.9.
Lay the points.
Pick: Duke -6.5
