After a massive shake-up at the top of college football, there's a bit of an interlude in the lead-up to next week's massive slate in Week 7.
However, college football only knows chaos, and Week 6 may have plenty of more excitement across the board. Get ready for the entire slate with notes on every Top 25 matchup this weekend with betting insights, player prop analysis, and what I'm watching for.
College Football Week 6 Betting NotesMichigan State vs. Oregon Betting Notes theirAidan Chiles is an exciting watch, but also a painful one if you are a Spartans fan. While the talent is clear, the Oregon State transfer has made seven big-time throws to 14 turnover-worthy plays on the season. Michigan State has been banged up along the offensive line and at wide receiver, so Chiles has been forced into a tough situation, but some of his passes are bet-defining decisions and is something to think about when grabbing more than three scores with Sparty. Oregon’s offensive line continues to be a work in progress, but the offense continues to look efficient. Against an aggressive Michigan State defense, I’m curious how Oregon’s non-explosive offense responds. The Spartans are 12th in the country in sacks and rank 20th in EPA/Rush but have been vulnerable to chunk plays, 124th in explosive pass rate. Oregon hasn’t aired it out at all, outside the top 100 in both explosive run and pass rate, how will Dillon Gabriel handle this type of matchup? Gabriel has had little issue getting near 300 yards, but with Ohio State on deck, could this be a matchup where the Ducks take their foot off the gas? Syracuse vs. UNLV Betting Notes Turns out Matthew Sluka wasn’t all that important to the Rebels. Backup quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams passed for 182 yards and ran for 119 in the team’s blowout win against Fresno State last week, 59-14. While the offense may be more than capable, I’m curious how the defense will hold up against far and away the best offense to face the Rebels this season. EPA/Pass of each offense UNLV has faced (FBS): 129th, 74th, 72nd. Syracuse is 29th in that metric. My numbers make UNLV a two-point favorite at home, so I’m happy to get more than six with the Orange who are a live underdog on Friday night. This is a significant upgrade for UNLV, who closed as a two-and-a-half point favorite against Fresno State less than a week ago. UCLA vs. Penn State Betting Notes The Bruins may start backup Justyn Martin in place of a banged-up Ethan Garbers, who hasn’t practiced yet this week at the time of this writing. I’m not all that confident in either quarterback to find answers against Penn State as the team has zero semblance of a ground game, 133th in line yards, and 129th in yards per carry. The team has faced the furthest average third-down distance in the country this season at nearly nine yards. That’s a big issue against a Penn State defense that is sixth in yards per play at under four yards. Can Penn State get the necessary margin to cover a four-touchdown spread? I think so. Despite a big game on deck against USC, the Nittany Lions offense continues to move the ball well under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelencki, 10th in yards per play and 11th in EPA/Play. The Nittany Lions have moved the ball explosively and methodically. This is a brutal setup for UCLA, who is playing its fourth straight ranked (now) ranked opponent, traveling across the country twice this month already. Missouri vs. Texas A&M Betting Notes Plenty of questions heading into one of the most high-leverage games of the Week 6 slate. Missouri hasn’t faced a difficult schedule to date but did have two fairly close calls against Boston College and Vanderbilt. The Tigers, who have future first-round pick Luther Burden with returning quarterback Brady Cook, are outside the top 100 nationally in explosive play rate. Texas A&M’s defense will be far and away the toughest test for the Tigers, especially on the road. There’s a case to be made that the Tigers haven’t shown much because the team hasn’t needed to, and out of a BYE this can be a time to open up the playbook and to hunt some bigger plays. However, I’ll give some credit to the Aggies' defense which has been formidable in the trenches all season. The team feels destined to play in NFL-style affairs with games ending in the mid-to-low 20s with its propensity to run the ball and play at a prodding pace. Both teams move the ball successfully, each top 15 in success rate, but both are outside the top 100 in explosiveness. In a big game, I’ll trust both defenses to hold up in close and force field goals instead of touchdowns, sending me toward the under in this one. I envision either team winning 20-17. SMU vs. Louisville Betting Notes SMU is an enigma this season. After a slow start, the team went to Kevin Jennings as the full-time starter which has led to back-to-back blowout wins against TCU and Florida State. While the combined score of 108-58 feels empowering, the Mustangs have benefited from a +7 turnover margin in those two games. Louisville was on the wrong side of some tough bounces against Notre Dame, can the team turn around and be prepared for an aggressive SMU defense? The Mustangs' defense appears to be its calling card, 33rd in yards per play and 11th in EPA/Play, but the defense is vulnerable to big plays, 126th in explosive pass defense which can be a big issue against Caullin Lacy and Ja’Corey Brooks of Louisville. I bet under 58 early in the week, and while that number is no longer available, I give the edge to both defensive lines in this one that can make this game a bit more of a grind than the market anticipates. I’m not a believer in this SMU offense at the moment as the team has feasted on some turnover variance in its favor to build up big score lines. Louisville’s defense appears to be legit, currently 25th in yards per play. Iowa vs. Ohio State Betting Notes The Hawkeyes have an elite ground game this season but are a one-dimensional outfit. The team isn’t going to be able to get to third and manageable against a Buckeyes defense that is second in early down EPA/Play this season. Iowa will be forced to throw, which will likely fail to lead to results with the team 98th in EPA/Pass and 127th in explosive pass rate.While Ohio State may not be interested in showing much on offense, I believe the team can feast on prime field position and take the top off an Iowa defense that hasn’t shown it can keep down explosive plays all that much. In the team’s lone matchup against a semi-functioning offense, Iowa State was able to achieve a national average EPA/Dropback relative to games last season, per Gameonpaper, and push the ball down the field. Ohio State’s pass catchers have the edge in this one with budding stars Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka I feel comfortable laying it with the Buckeyes at inside of two touchdowns. Auburn vs. Georgia Betting Notes Auburn has been on the wrong end of three losses this season that the team could’ve won each of. The team has had a post-game win expectancy of 19.3%, 93.3%, and 75.3% in its three losses. Of course, heading to Georgia to face the Bulldogs off a loss is never appetizing to bet against, but Kirby Smart’s teams haven’t been so great in this situation. Georgia is 8-15 against the spread since 2017 (Smart’s second season) when laying three touchdowns or more. The market appears wise to the idea that Georgia could be in a “get-right-spot” against Auburn, as the opener of -20 was gobbled up, now sitting at -24.5Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Betting Notes Do two elite defensive lines meet two suspect offensive lines? The Ole Miss roster this season featured an elite group of starters, but injuries are starting to mount in the trenches for the Rebels, evident in the team’s stunning loss at home to Kentucky. It won’t get any easier for Ole Miss, who now travels to South Carolina to face a Gamecocks team that is fresh off a BYE and bolster an elite defensive line. South Carolina will get its starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers back, but I don’t believe this Gamecocks offense can do much against Ole Miss’ defensive line that ranks first in Pro Football Focus’ pass-rush grade (South Carolina is third). Ole Miss has the firepower to take the top off of the home team’s defense, but I believe that with some offensive line issues to the likes of Jayden Williams, who could be out against, this game may be more conservative. The Rebels defense is the more trustworthy unit right now, and if the team can avoid turnovers, I believe the team can keep a lid on South Carolina’s offense. It’s never fun to step in front of the Rebels’ offense, but I took the under in this one as the Rebels look more to get out of this game without a second straight loss than to run it up. Further, I doubt South Carolina can move the ball reliably against this Ole Miss defense to put up the necessary points to get into the mid-20s. Indiana vs. Northwestern Betting Notes Indiana continues to dismantle opponents en route to the College Football Playoff discussion. The team has scored 40 plus in every game since its opener, covering each game with ease. Now, the Hoosiers head to Northwestern in a game that should feature plenty of wind, sending the total down from 45.5 to 41 as of this writing. However, I’m still interested in laying it with the Hoosiers, who rank top 10 in both EPA/Play on offense and defense and have also had little issue running it up on opponents late in the game to ensure the cover. Yes, Northwestern is coming off of a BYE, but the team has shown little semblance of a passing game (133rd in EPA/Pass) and ranks 122nd in PFF’s run game grade. The Hoosiers have too much firepower not to push this game past two touchdowns. Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Betting Notes This game could be ripe for a letdown of sorts from the Crimson Tide against a Vanderbilt team that plays at a slow tempo (83rd in seconds per play) and a top 20 rush rate. Can Vandy slow this game down and cover a massive point spread? The Commodores do come off of a BYE after hanging around with Missouri and taking the Tigers to overtime on the road. There is no doubt a talent gap between the two teams, but Alabama did allow the likes of South Florida to hang around before running away and nearly covering a 30-plus point spread. Can Vandy hang on to keep this one close?Given the stakes of each game rising, this could be a game where Jalen Milroe looks to avoid contact and the Crimson Tide try to skate by with a win, leading me to a lean of the big underdog. Clemson vs. Florida State Betting Notes Brock Glenn will take over for the injured D.J. Uiagalelei as the Seminoles season is over at 1-4. To me, if Glenn was any good, he would’ve taken over for DJU earlier in the season as Mike Norvell tries to salvage the season. However, that’s not the case. Clemson’s offense has continued to blitz out-matched opponents, scoring 40 or more in three straight games since losing to Georgia in Week 1, can the team run it up on a struggling Seminoles defense?The Tigers' offensive line will be tested more than its last three opponents, the Seminoles are 16th in tackles for loss this season. But the unit can’t slow down explosive plays, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA/Play. I can’t trust the FSU offense with Glenn, who was ineffective in the ACC Championship Game last season against Louisville and clearly isn’t viable under center for this year’s offense, but I’m curious to see how Clemson handles the Noles' defense. Utah State vs. Boise State Betting Notes We are on Ashton Jeanty watch in this one with the Broncos laying nearly four touchdowns. I mean, the stats are otherworldly. Jeanty is rushing for more than 10 yards per carry on 82 rushes with 13 touchdowns in four games.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas Betting Notes The Razorbacks get a ton of buzz for its offense with Bobby Petrino calling the plays and a dynamic quarterback like Taylen Green, but it's the defense that has impressed me thus far. The Hogs' defense ranks 14th in EPA/Rush and is top half of the country in explosive play rate allowed. Overall, the unit is 28th in EPA/Play despite playing a fairly sturdy strength of schedule to start the season. Meanwhile, the offense is struggling to put points on the board. Some of it is Green’s discipline with the ball, making eight big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays per Pro Football Focus, and some of it is the offensive line. The Hogs offense has allowed 33 tackles for loss this season, 110th in the country. Against a Vols defense that will be fresh off the BYE week and is feasting on suspect offensive lines, tallying 31 tackles for loss in four games and ranking third in EPA/Play, I believe the Hogs may struggle. I took the under in this one at 60.5 as I think Tennessee’s defense continues to not get enough credit in the market as Arkansas's offense continues to struggle against high-end competition. Tennessee’s offense does have some offensive line questions I’m interested to monitor, but more than anything the under is a play on its defense shutting down Petrino’s offense. Michigan vs. Washington Betting Notes Michigan’s margin for error is very thin with a non-existent passing game, evident in the close call against Minnesota last week and the comeback effort against USC the week prior. Washington has made its margin for error much smaller due to its own mistakes, ranking bottom five in penalty yards per game this season. This is the Wolverines’ first road game of the season, which makes for an interesting wrinkle against Washington in a National Championship Game rematch that looks nothing like last January’s meeting. Washington’s defense is much further along than expected under Steve Belichick (yes, Bill’s son), ranking eighth in yards per play allowed, but can it handle the physicality of Michigan’s ground game after letting Kyle Monangai run for 100-plus yards last week against Rutgers. Washington hasn’t faced an elite defense just yet, but Will Rogers has looked more than capable this season, leading an offense that is 12th in EPA/Play on the year. Will a Michigan defense that hopes to have the likes of Josiah Stewart and Will Johnson back ruin the Huskies’ game plan? USC vs. Minnesota Betting Notes There will be more than 25 miles per hour wind gusts in the Twin Cities on Saturday night, making for an interesting sub-plot for a USC team that is passing the ball at a top 10 rate in the country. Minnesota will look to slow this game down and pound the rock with the likes of Darius Taylor and Marcus Major, who worked for the likes of Michigan earlier this season. USC is allowing more than five yards per carry this season, outside the top 100 on the year. The wind in the area could negate what is a bit of a question mark in Minnesota’s secondary, who hasn’t faced an offense that is inside the top half of the country in EPA/Pass this season yet. USC is 58th in that metric. Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Notes This will be the best offense that Iowa State has seen so far this season, but will Baylor get off the mat after a second straight tough loss in Big 12 play? There is no denying that Sawyer Robertson is the new QB1 in Waco as the Bears have posted positive EPA/Dropback numbers over the last two weeks, but can the team keep it up against Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defense on the road? There’s definitely some quit factor for the Bears in this one, but Iowa State is untested and being trusted to cover a big-point spread against a potentially frisky offense. Miami (Florida) vs. Cal Betting Notes Miami survived a scare last Friday, and now takes the long trip to Berkley, California to face the Golden Bears in its ACC debut off a BYE. The market is pricing in the spot for Cal as a home underdog with a significant rest advantage as the team closed 11.5-point underdogs at Auburn a few weeks ago and now are facing a College Football Playoff contender in Miami. The Hurricanes may be wise to attack on the ground in this one as the Cal defense has been adept at shutting off deep passes and ranks 40th in PFF’s pass rush grade and 16th in coverage grade. However, the run game looks to be the weak point, ranking 92nd in defensive line yards and 89th in EPA/Rush. Further, Miami is top 10 in offensive line yards, so I’m eyeing a big outing from Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez out west.
