Bust. It’s the dirtiest four-letter word in fantasy football.
Fantasy managers who drafted players such as James Robinson, Miles Sanders, Allen Robinson and Brandon Aiyuk last season know the term (and its consequences) all too well. Selecting a player who disappoints in the early rounds can be detrimental to your chances of fielding a contender, so it’s obviously something we all want to avoid.
Fantasy busts include players who ultimately don’t live up to their draft position. This can also include players who had a tremendous late-season statistical surge during the previous campaign who might be overvalued as a result. A player who you pick to be your backup quarterback or tight end in the later rounds is not defined as a bust, since a dud mid- to late-round selection is often times replaceable on the waiver wire.
With that in mind, here are nine players to beware with your I’ve limited the list to running backs and wide receivers since the majority of quarterbacks and most tight ends won’t be drafted in the top-70 picks..
This group includes two of the game’s top receivers now playing in a new offense, along with two of last year’s fantasy football darlings. You may be surprised to see some of the players on this list since they will be drafted early in fantasy drafts.
Just because these players have enjoyed success in the past does not mean they are immune from regression.
Breakouts | Sleepers | Deep sleepers
Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
Hill has long been one of the elite fantasy wideouts, but I’m concerned about his 2022 outlook. Now in Miami, he’ll see an enormous downgrade at quarterback from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. Hill will also have to share targets with Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki (among others), and his schedule is one of the least favorable at wideout. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hill finished outside of the top 12 fantasy wideouts this year.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
Jacobs finished 12th in fantasy points among running backs last season, but the Raiders’ “new-look” offense could hurt him. The team added superstar Davante Adams, who will command a high target share. That means a decline in Jacobs’ 54 catches is imminent. New coach Josh McDaniels also wants to use a committee approach, with Jacobs, rookie Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah all getting touches. Buyer beware.
A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
I don’t doubt Brown’s skills, but I am concerned about his ceiling in Philadelphia. The Eagles led the NFL in rushing percentage a season ago, and Jalen Hurts has a lot to prove as a passer in the NFL. Brown will also have to contend with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert for targets, and he hasn’t been the most durable player in recent years. If you do draft Brown, it shouldn’t be as more than a mid-level No. 2 fantasy wideout.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers
Johnson has been an absolute targets machine in recent seasons, but that came with Ben Roethlisberger under center. The Steelers new starting quarterback, whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett, will come with question marks not only for the offense as a whole but for the value of its pass catchers. Johnson is still coming off the board as a low-end No. 1 fantasy wideout, which might come back to bite managers.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders
Gibson finished as the RB10 last season but was inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, as he scored fewer than 12 fantasy points seven times and was limited to single digits in in six of those games. With pass catcher J.D. McKissic back in the mix and the selection of rookie Brian Robinson in the draft, Gibson’s 2022 touch share could decline. He'll be a No. 2 fantasy runner at best, despite last season's high finish at the position.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
Metcalf is coming off a season where he finished as the WR14, but he was unreliable in the stat sheets for managers. In fact, he recorded fewer than 12.1 points nine times in his final 12 games. The Seahawks are turning to Geno Smith at quarterback after the Russell Wilson trade, neither or whom will elicit much excitement when it comes to selecting either Metcalf or Tyler Lockett in upcoming fantasy drafts.
Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
Thomas is expected to return this season, but can he be the same elite player he was before he hurt his ankle? While he was quickly off the PUP list in training camp, he has barely played the last two years and will no longer have coach Sean Payton calling the shots. The Saints have also added rookie Chris Olave and veteran Jarvis Landry, and it’s anyone’s guess how Thomas will perform without Drew Brees at the helm of the team.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Falcons
Patterson shockingly finished last season as the No. 9 running back based on fantasy points, but the wide receiver-turned-running back faltered down the stretch. In fact, he scored fewer than nine fantasy points in six of his final eight games and had just one game with more than 14 points in that time. The Falcons have added rookies Drake London and Tyler Allgeier, too, so Patterson’s role could be scaled back this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
St. Brown was a league winner as a rookie, posting top-three fantasy numbers among wide receivers in his final six games. However, he was playing in an offense that didn't have T.J. Hockenson, and the Lions have made a few big moves to upgrade the passing attack. First, the team grabbed D.J. Chark as a free agent. Next, Detroit moved up in the draft to land Jameson Williams. As a result, St. Brown’s stock in 2022 is sliding.
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